[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 170731
SWODY2
SPC AC 170727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE CZZ 20 SW LAS
25 WNW MLF 25 SSW SLC 55 NNE ENV 45 SE BAM 15 NNE TVL 25 NW SVE 30
ESE 4LW 55 S BKE 30 NNE S80 55 NNW FCA ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 40 ENE
BIL 30 N WRL 25 N CPR 50 WNW BFF AKO 50 NNE CAO 50 N ROW 75 SSW GDP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRE 25 WNW FLO
15 SW HKY SSU 35 NW BWI 15 E NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FMY 30 SSE VRB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE GULF OF AK/NE PACIFIC EXPECTED
AMPLIFY DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AS UPSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO THE
ALEUTIANS AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS N ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS VLY. 
IN THE EAST...PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE REMNANTS OF IVAN. 
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST TEMPORARILY ABSORBED INTO THE WLYS
LATER TODAY.  BUT RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. ON SATURDAY
SUGGEST THAT SYSTEM WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SRN VA/NC AREA
LATER IN THE DAY TWO PERIOD AS THE WLYS LIFT NEWD INTO NRN NEW ECG.
...NC/VA...
A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER
PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN VA AND NC ON SATURDAY...WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE
AND FAIRLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/ WILL LIKELY PERSIST INVOF REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF IVAN.  BUT AXIS OF RICHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S/ WILL LIKELY HAVE BEEN SHUNTED EWD OFF THE
NC/SE VA CST BY THAT TIME.  IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL WARM CORE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY
WARM /AROUND MINUS 7 C AT 500 MB/.  THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED.

...WRN STATES...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NNE INTO PARTS OF AZ AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF THE SWRN U.S. FROM T.S. JEANNE SHOULD INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER REGION ON SATURDAY.  ABSENCE OF
STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS
A RESULT OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM.

FARTHER N...A BAND OR TWO OF FRONTAL AND/OR POST FRONTAL STORMS MAY
ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN.  WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH
LIKELY TO DEEPEN OFF THE CA CST DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THAT
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE
FRONTAL STORMS...WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

..CORFIDI.. 09/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.