[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 101731
SWODY2
SPC AC 101727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT FRI SEP 10 2004

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE GPT MEI RMG
RDU 15 NNE HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE MTC 30 S SBN
BRL DSM 15 SW MCW AUW 115 NNW ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW INL FAR JMS
MOT 60 NNW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW DEN TAD ROW
ALM SAD PRC TRM PMD BIH U31 BPI RWL 10 NNW DEN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW HVR 3DU 4LW MFR
30 SSE EUG DLS EAT 45 NE 4OM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PERTURBED AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NRN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. STRONG UPPER WAVE NOW OVER
THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS A NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD
TOWARD THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE WILL
MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY TONIGHT.  THIS
FRONT WILL REACH NRN LOWER MI-CNTRL WI-NEB LINE BY 00Z SUNDAY AND BE
THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE TSTMS.
  
...NRN GREAT LAKES REGION...
AS THE UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING
CONVECTION.  BELT OF 50-60 KTS H5 FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-6KM SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS...SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS.  MLCAPES APPROACH 1000-1500
J/KG...AS A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECT ATOP UPPER
50S DEW POINTS.  STRONGEST H5 HEIGHT FALLS...HOWEVER...ARE LIKELY TO
PASS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.  09Z SREF SUGGESTS THAT
ISOLD TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FROM NWRN ONTARIO INTO ERN UPPER MI SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THAT STRONGEST SUPPORT WILL LIKELY BE COINCIDENT
WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY...ONLY ISOLD RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL
WILL EXIST OVER THESE AREAS.  FARTHER SW ACROSS CNTRL WI...GIVEN
WEAKER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT/CONVERGENCE...STRONG HEATING WILL BE
NEEDED TO INITIATE TSTMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT
HIGH.

..RACY.. 09/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.