[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 040739
SWODY2
SPC AC 040735

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE
GRI 25 WNW OTG 35 NE RWF 25 NE MSP 15 S EAU 35 W JLN 45 NE OKC 30
ESE GAG 25 ENE GRI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
PBI 25 NNW PIE ...CONT... 30 ENE AQQ 35 SW ABY 30 NNE ABY 70 ESE MCN
15 SSE SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE YUM 45 SSE PHX
SVC GDP 20 W BGS 60 W CSM DDC 50 E LAA 10 S LHX 10 WNW PUB DEN PIR
30 E RRT ...CONT... 45 SSE OSC 10 NNE BMG 15 NW MEM 10 N MCB 35 SSW
HUM ...CONT... 35 SE MOB SEM 30 NE ATL 10 SE DAN 10 E ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN/CENTRAL FL INTO SRN
GA...

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. 
PREFER THE SLOWER SPEED OF MOVEMENT DEPICTED BY THE
ETA/UKMET/NGM/CMC MODELS COMPARED TO FASTER GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO
ACCELERATE THE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOO RAPIDLY.  IN
RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S WILL
PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  GENERALLY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5 C/KM ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE AS COOLER 500
MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT...LIMITING MLCAPE
TO 1000-1500 J/KG. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT FROM SRN MN SSWWD INTO ERN KS AS DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SWD EXTENT OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ETAKF MEMBERS OF THE SREF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION SWD INTO TX BY 06/00Z.  GIVEN THE WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE SRN PLAINS IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED FROM CENTRAL OK SWD.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY CONTRIBUTING TO
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION. 
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...FL INTO SRN GA...
FRANCES IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL TOMORROW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE EXTREME NERN GULF COAST TOWARD TLH TOMORROW
NIGHT ACCORDING TO NHC GUIDANCE.  DESPITE WEAKENING OVER
LAND...STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR/HELICITY
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. 
GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SMALL SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES TO DEVELOP OVER PART OF NRN AND
CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY...POSSIBLY SPREADING NWD INTO SRN GA AT
NIGHT.

..WEISS/MEAD.. 09/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.