[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 011701
SWODY2
SPC AC 011658

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT WED SEP 01 2004

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW MRF 25 SSW FST
50 W JCT 15 SSW HDO 45 WNW ALI 55 N BRO ...CONT... 20 WSW GLS 45 NNW
BPT 50 E SHV 55 N GLH 45 S CGI 30 ENE SLO 10 NE IND 30 NNE LEX 35
ESE LOZ 35 NE AVL 25 N FAY 35 N HSE ...CONT... 65 SW TUS 65 N TUS 50
ENE SOW 40 NW ABQ 35 N 4CR 20 W ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE DVL 55 NE MBG
50 NE AIA 30 NNE AKO 15 ENE COS 50 E GUC 30 NW 4BL 15 WSW SGU 45 SSE
TPH 20 W U31 10 NE OWY 30 SE 27U 40 NE HVR.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE WRN
STATES ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING
ASHORE OVER WA/ORE...SPREADS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN
ROCKIES. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS TROUGH AND STRONG
60-90M HEIGHT FALLS PER 12H...ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND IS FCST
TO BE SITUATED FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE SRN GREAT BASIN BY EARLY
FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
CNTRL AND ERN U.S. AND ALL EYES WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE TRACK OF HRCN
FRANCES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ON APPROACH TO FL.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ENHANCED
BY STEEP LAPSE RATES/LOW STATIC STABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE TSTMS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM NRN UT INTO WY AND SWRN/CNTRL MT.
HOWEVER...LIMITED CAPE AOB 200 J/KG AND LI VALUES ONLY AROUND 0 TO
MINUS 1 SHOULD CURB UPDRAFT INTENSITY DESPITE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. A FEW STORMS NEAR THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR
PERHAPS SMALL HAIL BUT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE ROCKIES
APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

...NRN GREAT PLAINS...
STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A LEE/THERMALLY-INDUCED TROUGH FROM ERN CO NEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE DRY WITH DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 200-800 J/KG. HIGH-BASED TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP WITHIN THE LEE-TROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST
HAZARD BEING ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED DOWNBURST WINDS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER DARK AS COLD FRONT MERGES
WITH THE LEE TROUGH FROM NERN WY INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. THE BULK OF
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED WITH TIME AS THE COLD FRONT
UNDERCUTS THE UPDRAFTS.

..CARBIN.. 09/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.