[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 151617
SWODY2
SPC AC 151616

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CTB 35 NNE LWT
15 N BIL 55 SW BIL 40 N WEY 30 W BTM 25 WNW S80 15 WSW LWS 35 WNW
GEG 40 NW 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE DOV 30 NW SBY
25 SW DCA 40 SW MRB 15 NW AOO 25 SSE BFD 15 SSE JHW 30 SSW ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE MKL 20 E HSV 15
S RMG LGC 20 SE 0A8 45 SW CBM 35 N GLH 60 ENE LIT 40 SE MKL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 30 SE UCA 30 S
PSF 15 NNE ORH 25 NW PWM 15 W EPM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL DEAMPLIFY THIS WEEKEND. COLD UPPER LOW/TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL ROTATE NEWD
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY.  IN ITS
WAKE...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE
CNTRL/SRN STATES.  MEANWHILE...CLOSED UPPER LOW A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES WEST OF SRN CA WILL OPEN AND EJECT EWD AS A WEAKENING TROUGH
AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER IMPULSE DIGS SWD FROM THE GULF OF AK
SATURDAY.  STRONG TRANSPORT OF CP AIR MASS SWD INTO THE CONTINENTAL
U.S. AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO/SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC BASIN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PRECLUDE RISKS OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
SATURDAY. 

CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME AND STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTION/SPORADIC TSTMS AHEAD OF A POTENT
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE FROM CNTRL PA NEWD
INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. OTHER TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE DOWNWIND SIDES OF LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO WHERE
DELTA-T/S WILL BE LARGE AND EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 20C. 


OTHER TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  H5
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF AK IMPULSE AND MOISTENING
PROFILES WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR AT
LEAST ISOLD TSTMS.

OTHERWISE...WEAK RETURN FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED TSTMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN PARTS OF MS/AL...PRIMARILY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

..RACY.. 10/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.