[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 280548
SWODY2
SPC AC 280547

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST SAT NOV 27 2004

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW P07 INK LBB
CDS OKC TUL UNO PAH BNA GAD SEM 55 NNE MOB 30 SSE MOB ...CONT... 25
S CRP 30 S LRD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...INCLUDING SEVERE THREAT...DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 
DISCREPANCIES ARISING IN MORE RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE ONLY ADDED TO
THE UNCERTAINTY.  A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE STILL APPEARS LIKELY
INTO WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS...AS SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND GRADUALLY EVOLVE
INTO A CLOSED LOW LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
STRENGTH/EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON FOUR CORNERS LOW...IS NOW
MORE IN QUESTION.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT LEAD SYSTEM MAY BEGIN ACCELERATING OUT THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THIS
WILL OCCUR WITH TROUGH AXIS MAINTAINING POSITIVE TILT
ORIENTATION...ON NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF FAIRLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO/
CARIBBEAN/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND BAHAMAS.  MODELS NOW APPEAR FASTER
WITH SOUTHWARD SURGE OF COLD AIR THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO TEXAS...FURTHER COMPLICATING FORECAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
UNCERTAINTY EXISTING WITH REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF
REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL CLOSED NOW...NOW WEST OF BAJA.

...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS...WITH WEAK IMPULSE IN SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES PROVIDING PRIMARY FORCING.  THIS CONVECTION APPEARS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE
DAY...IN BAROCLINIC ZONE...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES/TENNESSEE VALLEY.

WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID/UPPER 60S DEW POINTS WILL THEN
SLOWLY BROADEN FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO
LOUISIANA...POSSIBLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. WHILE SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...FORCING FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BENEATH BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC REGIME ON
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS UNCERTAIN.  LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL CAPPING MAY REMAIN INHIBITIVE
OF DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACCELERATES OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS STATES.  WITH THIS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT...SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR LOW.

CONVECTION MAY INITIATE MONDAY NIGHT ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SURGING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...TOWARD
TEXAS COASTAL AREAS.  GIVEN FAVORABLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT LIKELY TO
REMAIN ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH...
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BECOME STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LIMITED
HAIL THREAT IN STRONGER STORMS.

OTHERWISE...INTENSIFYING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG MID/UPPER
TEXAS COASTAL AREAS INTO LOUISIANA MAY CONTRIBUTE TO PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER FORCING INCREASES LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  DESPITE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING... BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY BUOYANT WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES...TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW RISK
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 11/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.