[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 120605
SWODY2
SPC AC 120604

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 AM CST FRI NOV 12 2004

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S CTY 25 SSE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W PRB 40 NNE OXR
DAG 35 S SGU PGA 40 NNW GUP 35 SSW DMN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW P07 30 WNW INK
45 E ROW 40 ESE TCC 50 ENE AMA CSM 35 ESE SPS 10 SSE CLL 25 WSW GLS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD...MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND 4-CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH TWO
WELL-DEFINED PERTURBATIONS FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH THE MEAN
PATTERN. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY NEAR SAN FRANCISCO
BAY/ IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD FROM NRN MEXICO ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS SATURDAY...PRIOR TO LIFTING MORE NWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE /OBSERVED
NEAR 42N/142W PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WILL DIG SEWD ALONG THE CA
COAST INTO THE TROUGH BASE OVER NRN BAJA CA/GULF OF CA BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE E OF THE ROCKIES WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY...STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE NATION.

...TX...
MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THE NWRN
GULF OF MEXICO NWD ACROSS TX WILL SUPPORT POCKETS OF WEAK
INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS AS LEAD
DISTURBANCE LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...SWRN STATES...
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING 80-90 KT
JET STREAK ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CA ESEWD INTO AZ. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN WEAK...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES
MAY SUPPORT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

...FL...
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSTMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG.

..MEAD.. 11/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.