[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 060548
SWODY2
SPC AC 060547

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST FRI NOV 05 2004

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW SBA SBA BIH
U31 EKO 45 NE ENV SLC PUC U17 INW 55 E PHX PHX IGM 40 NNW EED TRM
CZZ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER CENTRAL/SRN CA OFFSHORE WATERS -- IS FCST TO TURN EWD AND MOVE
INLAND DURING PERIOD.  LATEST 21Z SREF COMPOSITES...21Z ETA-KF AND
00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE
ANOTHER ON THIS PROCESS.  HOWEVER...PROG TRENDS GOING BACK A COUPLE
OF DAYS HAVE BEEN SLOWING TIMING OF INLAND MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM
WITH EACH SUCCEEDING SET OF RUNS.  THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE THAT MOST
OF CONUS E OF ROCKIES WILL REMAIN E OF DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...IN NW TO WLY FLOW ALOFT...AND WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN OF SIGNIFICANCE.

...SRN GREAT BASIN TO COASTAL SRN CA...
ONLY GEN THUNDER POTENTIAL OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE NEAR COLD CORE
OF UPPER LOW...AND IN FOREGOING LOW LEVEL WAA/MOIST ADVECTION
CONVEYOR.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES 100-500 J/KG RANGE INVOF SRN CA COAST DURING
DAY...AND INCREASING AFTER 00Z TO SIMILAR VALUES ACROSS SRN/SWRN
GREAT BASIN AREA.  LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AND COOLING ALOFT MAY
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL PRODUCTION IN A FEW CELLS...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS TOO WEAK/ISOLATED TO WARRANT EITHER PROBABILISTIC OR
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOKS ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 11/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.