[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 051723
SWODY2
SPC AC 051723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CST FRI NOV 05 2004

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S VBG 45 NNE NID
60 E LAS 25 NW PRC 70 SW GBN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EYW PBI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WEST OF ROCKIES...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO FORECAST AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY...DOWNSTREAM OF PROGRESSIVE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  AS THIS OCCURS...CLOSED LOW
WILL REMAIN CUT-OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. 
MODELS DO SUGGEST A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WILL ROTATE AROUND
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CIRCULATION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS
NORTHERN BAJA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT.

ASSOCIATED EVOLUTION OF 30 TO 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
JET INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT BENEATH EXIT REGION OF UPPER
JET STREAK.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE NEEDLES AREA...
WESTWARD THROUGH THE MOJAVE DESERT.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR COLD CORE OF UPPER LOW...
BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTAL AREAS.

...EAST OF ROCKIES...
IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO LATE TODAY...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. 
MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA/CARIBBEAN/AND BAHAMAS REGION SATURDAY...LIKELY SUPPORTING
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY
SOUTH/EAST OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...WEAK CAPPING AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE VICINITY OF
COASTAL AREAS AROUND MIAMI.

..KERR.. 11/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.