[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 031730
SWODY2
SPC AC 031729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST WED NOV 03 2004

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW
CRE 20 E FLO 30 S RIC 25 W SBY 35 NE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE SFO 50 NNE SAC
35 WSW LOL 20 WNW U31 30 ENE TPH 25 NNE EDW 15 SW LAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MOB MGM GAD 50
WSW CSV LEX DAY 10 WSW TOL MTC OSC PLN 60 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 30 WNW
ROC 40 E BFD CXY ABE PSF EEN 15 SSE PSM ...CONT... 10 ESE DAB 60 N
PIE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS....

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOUTHERN PLAINS CLOSED LOW HAS FINALLY
BEGUN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...AS UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.  WHILE
LATTER FEATURE IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CUT-OFF LOW...MODELS
SUGGEST DOWNSTREAM CIRCULATION WILL EVOLVE INTO SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND CONTINUE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE
ACCELERATING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  THIS WILL
OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO INFLUENCE OF MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...PHASING OF NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
BRANCH SYSTEMS INTO LARGER NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES IS PROGGED...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

...MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...
MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING EAST OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN. 
WITH APPROACH OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW
IS PROGGED ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...FROM THE LEE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING.  THIS WILL ALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S...TO RAPIDLY RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA INTO CHESAPEAKE REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.

WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE
WILL LIKELY CAP WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...WHEN IT APPEARS MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  WITH MIXED
LAYER CAPE EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 1000 J/KG...FORCING SHOULD
FAVOR EVOLUTION OF AT LEAST NARROW PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS.  EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN FLOW AROUND 50 KT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY
BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH CONVECTION...BEFORE ACTIVITY INCREASES IN
COVERAGE AND SPREADS OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING.

..KERR.. 11/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.