[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 110707
SWODY2
SPC AC 110705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E
MQT VOK SZL JLN 50 NW MLC OKC GAG DDC SLN 10 SSE LNK MSP 15 N ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE MSS 20 SE RUT
30 E ISP ...CONT... WAL DAN CAE 70 WNW SAV MGR 30 WNW PFN ...CONT...
20 NNE GLS TYR SPS LBL TAD CNY ENV BNO 65 ENE RDM ALW BTM LVM SHR
PHP MHN EAR OFK HON GFK 65 W RRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...KS/OK...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAIN SURFACE
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB TO A LOW IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  SURFACE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM LOW
ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO NORTHWEST TX.  AIRMASS SOUTH OF FRONT AND
EAST OF DRYLINE WILL BE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ONLY A WEAK CAP...ALLOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT OVER KS...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED CELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
OK.  LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE A WEAKNESS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER.  HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE A RISK OF SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.  THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.

...MO/IA/MN/WI...
BAND OF RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL LIE
ATOP SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.  POCKETS OF STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1000-2000
J/KG/. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST
MO INTO NORTHERN MN ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

..HART.. 05/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.