[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 101718
SWODY2
SPC AC 101716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW
BIS 20 S DVL TVF 35 S INL 30 SSW ELO 40 SE DLH 35 N RST OLU 40 ENE
HLC GAG CDS 40 ESE LBB 35 W LBB 35 ENE CVS 45 WNW GLD 50 ESE CYS 45
WNW BFF 65 SSE 81V 20 W Y22 40 NW BIS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DOV LYH 30 N
AND ATL 10 SE PNS ...CONT... 85 S MRF 30 WSW HOB 35 N TCC 35 W TAD
CEZ 20 SSE GCN 40 SSW LAS 65 NNW BIH 15 SSE LOL 50 N BAM 45 SW MQM
35 ENE WEY 30 NW SHR 35 NE MLS 60 NNW ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DBQ ALO 30 WNW
DSM MHK 25 ESE ICT TUL 25 ESE FYV 55 ESE HRO ARG CGI PIA 20 ESE DBQ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EWD INTO THE ROCKIES
...RESULTING IN A SURFACE LOW TO MOVE FROM WY/MT EWD ACROSS ND. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE A
STATIONARY FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID
MS VALLEY REGION...SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN STATES AS A
WARM FRONT.

...NRN PLAINS...
WIDESPREAD PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING IN ND
DURING THE MORNING...IN ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THE
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SRN CANADA DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE  SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT WILL
BE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE...DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AS
LOWER/MID 60  DEWPOINTS IN THE SRN PLAINS ADVECT NWD INTO THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT FROM ND SWWD INTO WRN NEB AS A THERMAL TROUGH
ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH...APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY
ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND TRACK NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEB/SD/MN OVERNIGHT.

...WRN KS SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...
STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION...
MAINTAINING AT LEAST UPPER 50/LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS. LAPSE RATES WILL
REMAIN STEEP AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. MODELS INDICATE
A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS
SHOULD INCREASE THE CONVERGENCE SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED-V
PROFILES FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES WOULD ALSO SUPPORT HAIL.

..IMY.. 05/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.