[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 201727
SWODY2
SPC AC 201726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAL 25
SSE BGS 40 ESE HOB TCC 30 S RTN 15 ESE TAD 40 SSW LAA LBL OJC 45 NW
STL 45 NNE EVV BNA 40 S MSL TXK DAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CRP VCT 25 WNW
HOU 30 NE LCH BTR 25 WSW MCB 25 NNW HEZ 20 SSE SHV ACT 30 NW JCT 30
WNW DRT ...CONT... 65 SSW MRF 20 WSW ROW LVS GUC MLF 60 SE TVL 55 W
RBL OTH 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 60 NE CTB HLN 50 SSW S80 45 ESE BNO
OWY MLD 50 NW LND WRL 60 SSE 81V CDR LBF OFK SPW 30 WNW EAU 30 NE
CMX ...CONT... 55 W ART 40 NE BFD IPT 30 W BDR 25 S GON.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 40 NNW TUS
SAD SVC 40 W ELP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE WRN LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NW NWD INTO WRN
CANADA...WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER CENTRAL CANADA SWD
INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY.  A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...
MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE...WILL AMPLIFY THE CANADIAN
TROUGH SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY...WILL REACH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/MID MS VLY AND CENTRAL/SRN PLNS MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM
THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK EWD INTO NRN AR.

...SERN CO/NERN NM EWD ACROSS OK...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION TONIGHT AND LEFTOVER CLOUDS MAY
SLOW DOWN HEATING AND INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER 65-70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH
8-9C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR 90
DEGREES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES FROM 2500-3500 J/KG BY LATE
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE
TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK AND WEAK BOUNDARY FROM THE WRN OK INTO NRN AR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10-15 KT OR LESS IN THE LOWER
3 KM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 KT AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND SEVERE HAIL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SUFFICIENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SOME DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS. STORM OUTFLOWS ARE
LIKELY TO ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND TRACK ESEWD INTO PORTIONS OF NRN
TX/WRN AR OVERNIGHT WITH A WIND THREAT STILL POSSIBLE.

MODELS SUGGEST OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SERN CO/NERN NM MONDAY EVENING. THOUGH THIS AREA WILL BE BEHIND THE
FRONT...UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE LIFT FOR CONVECTION. 
DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPES FROM
1000-1500 J/KG. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND 30-40 KT WNWLY FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THESE STORMS EVOLVING QUICKLY INTO AN
MCS...WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE 
WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES MONDAY NIGHT.

...SERN KS/NERN OK EWD INTO SRN IL/WRN KY/WRN TN AND WRN AL...
A STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER ERN KS...WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET/THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
E/SEWD INTO PARTS OF NERN OK/WRN MO DURING THE MORNING AND THEN
TOWARD THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY AS DAYTIME HEATING BOOSTS
MLCAPE VALUES TO AOA 2000 J/KG. LINEAR FORCING ALONG CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW AND 30-40 WLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WEAKEN
AS THE STORMS REACH THE ERN END OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ...WHERE THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKER THAN AREAS TO
THE WEST.

..IMY.. 06/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.