[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 200735
SWODY2
SPC AC 200733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
SPS 20 SE BGS 40 ESE HOB 20 N CVS 30 E LVS 30 NE ALS 40 NNW LHX 30
NNE EHA 35 E EMP 30 SSW TBN 10 ESE MDH 15 SW BWG 35 WNW MSL 15 S TXK
20 ENE SPS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW ROC 20 NNE FKL
15 NNE AOO 20 ESE AVP 20 SW GON ...CONT... 25 WSW 7R4 50 N POE 35 NW
FTW 20 NNE SJT 30 WNW DRT ...CONT... 50 WSW FHU 30 N DUG 40 E DMN 15
W GDP 35 SE ROW 60 ENE 4CR 20 WSW LVS 50 SSE GUC 40 W ASE 45 E VEL
30 S BPI 40 WNW RIW 20 E CPR 40 ENE CYS 35 WSW IML 35 SSW EAR 10 WNW
OMA 10 ENE FOD 35 E EAU 45 ENE IWD 110 N CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE CTB 25 NNE HLN
27U 35 SW LWS 55 ENE RDM 15 SSW 4LW 30 S NFL 25 WSW BIH 20 SE SCK 45
E EKA 40 SE OTH 30 E AST 20 NE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
PLNS AND OZARKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION ON MONDAY
AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ALONG THE NRN BC CST AND HUDSON BAY LOW
RETROGRESSES W TOWARD THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  FARTHER S...MAIN PART
OF TROUGH NOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL SHEAR E/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS
AND JOIN FORCES WITH A NRN STREAM IMPULSE /THE ONE NOW OVER
SASKATCHEWAN-MANITOBA/...TO RESULT IN A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NRN
HALF OF THE PLNS/MS VLY BY 12Z TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN DISTURBANCE SHOULD
REACH THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY AND CNTRL PLNS MONDAY AFTERNOON. OF
GREATER SIGNIFICANCE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS PERIOD...
HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAKER BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO EXIST FARTHER S...FROM
THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION E/NE INTO SRN MO.  THIS FEATURE...MARKING
IN PART /1/ OLD FRONTAL SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS SRN STREAM
IMPULSE AND /2/ CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT WRN KS MCS AND LATER
DAY ONE ACTIVITY...WILL LIKELY SERVE AS MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG STORM
DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY.

...SE CO/ERN NM EWD INTO OK/SRN KS AND THE MO/AR OZARKS...
A STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD N OF WEAK FRONT OVER SRN KS...WHERE LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG
FRINGE OF SRN STREAM JET.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY
E/SE INTO PARTS OF OK/SRN MO AND NRN AR LATER IN THE DAY...WITH
INTENSIFICATION LIKELY AS DAYTIME HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO AOA 2000
J/KG.  LINEAR FORCING ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND 40-45 KT DEEP
WNWLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 35-40 KT SRN STREAM JET SHOULD SUPPORT
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND.

DIURNAL WEAKENING OF CAP MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR BACK-BUILDING OF
ACTIVITY WWD ACROSS CNTRL AND WRN OK...WHERE STRENGTH OF DEEP SHEAR
AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S COULD SUPPORT A 
COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HAIL/HIGH WIND.  FARTHER W/NW...WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT MAY ALSO SUPPORT SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WITH HAIL ACROSS FAR SE CO/ERN NM AND THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES.  ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A
LARGE MCS THAT DROPS SE TOWARD THE RED RIVER MONDAY NIGHT.

..CORFIDI.. 06/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.