[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 260731
SWODY2
SPC AC 260730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2004

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW
RRT 40 ENE ABR 20 E ANW 30 NW IML 10 SSE BFF 25 NNW CPR 55 ENE COD
30 SE 4BQ 35 SE DIK 50 NNE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N BML 35 SE AUG
...CONT... 40 E INL 30 NW RWF 15 SE OLU 20 NNW HUT 20 WNW OKC 20 NNE
FTW 30 SW LFK 10 N BTR 15 N SEM 20 W HSS 25 ENE CRW 20 ENE CMH 10 W
DAY 30 ESE SBN 35 SE OSC 160 NNW BUF ...CONT... 20 SE IPL 30 E EED
40 SSE PGA 30 SSW 4HV 30 SW U24 35 N DPG 20 WNW RKS 25 SSE RIW 30
ENE WEY 25 NNW 27U 50 S S06 45 NE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LWR 48 ON TUESDAY
AS POTENT UPPER SYSTEM NOW ENTERING AB CONTINUES E/SE ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MANITOBA.  AT THE SAME TIME...TROUGH NOW OVER THE
MID MS VLY EXPECTED TO FURTHER AMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY E/NE
UP THE OH VLY. FARTHER S...A WEAK...CYCLONICALLY-CURVED SRN BANACH
JET WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN GRT BASIN ACROSS THE SRN PLNS TO THE
LWR MS VLY.

AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SASKATCHEWAN SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NRN MT INTO WY AND THE DAKS DURING THE
PERIOD...WHILE LEE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL HI PLNS PROGRESSES
E INTO THE DAKS/CNTRL NEB.  IN THE EAST...WEAK LOW NEARLY COLOCATED
WITH OH VLY UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EDGE ONLY SLOWLY E FROM OH INTO
WRN PA/NY AS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTS N ACROSS MD/DE.

...NRN PLNS...
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH AFTERNOON HEATING INVOF COLD
FRONT SRN MT AND NRN/CNTRL WY...WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
OF 500 TO 1000 J PER KG/ AND 35-40 KT DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT SUSTAINED ACTIVITY/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS.  STORMS MAY ALSO
FORM IN MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH IN
THE DAKOTAS...WRN/CNTRL NEB AND ERN CO.  GREATER INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST IN THIS REGION RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER W /MLCAPE TO 2000 J
PER KG/...BUT DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK /RANGING FROM AROUND 15
KTS IN CO TO 25 KTS IN ND/.

HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED
STORMS... ESPECIALLY IN SRN MT/WY...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD
OCCUR IN THE DAKOTAS.  OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT...HOWEVER...APPEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE.  WHILE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE
ACTIVITY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO THAT PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WEAKNESS OF DEEP SHEAR AND ABSENCE OF RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN
LIMITED.

...UPR OH VLY TO MID ATL CST...
A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST TUESDAY AFTERNOON IF
SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR IN AREA E/SE OF SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH OH VLY UPPER TROUGH.  WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SLOW RETREAT
OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE OVER REGION WILL LIKELY
LIMIT LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT...WHERE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT /LOW LCLS...CONSIDERABLE
LOW LEVEL VEERING...SFC TO 1 KM SHEAR AOA 25 KTS/ WILL EXIST. 
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON PRESENCE OF BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF
BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DEGREE OF
SUNSHINE...A CATEGORICAL SEVERE OUTLOOK SEEMS UNJUSTIFIED ATTM.

..CORFIDI.. 07/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.