[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 251717
SWODY2
SPC AC 251716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N MOT PHP IML DHT
30 ESE CVS 40 NW BGS SJT AUS CLL 35 SSW TXK PBF DYR MVN 25 SE SPI
MMO 25 S MKG FNT 30 NNW BUF ART 50 NE UCA ALB POU JFK ...CONT... 10
W CZZ TRM EED SGU 50 WNW MLF NFL 35 SW MHS MFR 50 SSE BKE S80 3TH 65
NW FCA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...IS FORECAST TO BE EJECTED ENEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY
...AS A STRONGER TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES...THOUGH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/INVERTED
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE OH VALLEY...AND A COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP
SEWD INTO MT LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...AZ...
MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS
INCLUDES AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE/DIURNAL HEATING FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH NELY MID LEVEL WINDS PUSHING
THE CONVECTION SWWD INTO THE DESERT FLOORS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
ONLY ISSUE LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM AS CONVECTION TONIGHT MAY RESULT
IN REMNANT CLOUD COVER AND WEAKEN LAPSE RATES.

...ERN WY/ AND WRN NEB/SD...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF
AREA. SMALL HIGH LEVEL VORT MAX...EMBEDDED IN HIGH LEVEL
FLOW...SHOULD MOVE EWD THROUGH ID TODAY AND INTO WY ON MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER SO STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO WRN NEB/SD MONDAY EVENING...THEY WILL
ENCOUNTER A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. HOWEVER...INCREASING WLY FLOW ABOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER  WILL
RAISE 700 MB TEMPERATURES 4-5C FROM TODAY. THESE WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL STRENGTHEN THE CAP AND COULD INHIBIT STORMS FROM
TAPPING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS...ONLY MINIMAL SEVERE
PROBABILITIES FORECAST ATTM.

...MT...
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN SASKATCHEWAN AND THEN SPREAD INTO MT MONDAY NIGHT. 
WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL UNTIL THE NEXT DAY.

...CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES NEWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
WITH DIURNAL HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT. INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO THREAT FOR
SEVERE SHOULD BE VERY LOW.

..IMY.. 07/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.