[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 290605
SWODY2
SPC AC 290604

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 AM CST WED DEC 29 2004

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N CID 15 NW MSN 45
SW MBL 10 ESE GRR 40 SE AZO 25 NNW BMG 10 SW SLO 45 WNW STL 30 S OTM
15 N CID.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ROUNDING LARGER SCALE ERN PACIFIC TROUGH
BASE /NEAR 30N 124W PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS INTO WRN GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD FROM SERN MT...EVENTUALLY OCCLUDING
OVER SRN L.S./UP OF MI BY 31/12Z. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND EXTEND SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS
BY FRIDAY MORNING.

...UPPER MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR OWING TO PERSISTENT RIDGING ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY INCREASING INTO THE 40S TO POSSIBLY 50F.
HOWEVER...60-90 M/12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM
APPROACHING TROUGH AND RESULTANT STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TSTMS /LIKELY BASED ABOVE
BOUNDARY-LAYER/ ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING INVOF OF THE MS RIVER WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC-850 MB FRONT.

THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED WITH
TIME AS IT MOVES/DEVELOPS EWD/NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN IND/SWRN
MI. GIVEN THE COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES...POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL WILL EXIST WITH
STRONGEST STORMS.

..MEAD.. 12/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.