[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 091719
SWODY2
SPC AC 091718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW AQQ 15 SW ABY
30 ENE CSG 35 SSW ANB TCL 20 E UOX 30 S PAH 10 ESE HUF 40 ENE LAF 35
NNE FWA 20 S DTW ...CONT... 15 N ROC 20 S ITH POU 25 SSW EEN 20 ENE
LCI 25 SSE 3B1 25 SSE HUL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ON FRIDAY AS IT MOVES EWD TO THE ERN
U.S. AND IN ADVANCE OF BUILDING HEIGHTS UPSTREAM OVER THE PLAINS
STATES.  MODELS SHOW A COMPLEX SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NEWD OVER THE NERN STATES ON DAY 2.  ONE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY
TRACK FROM ERN OH TO SRN NY...WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MOVES
ACROSS SRN VA TO THE DELMARVA REGION BY 11/00Z.  TRAILING COLD
FRONT...INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS SWWD ACROSS
WRN GA TO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE...WILL MOVE EWD AND OFF THE MID/SRN
ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES TO CENTRAL FL AFTER 11/00Z.  

...SERN VA/ERN CAROLINAS TO NRN FL...
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE LINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MAINLY EAST OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND IN REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH.  SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INLAND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC STATES
WITH VALUES IN THE MID-UPPER 60S REACHING ERN NC TO EXTREME SERN VA
BY 12Z FRIDAY. DESPITE THIS GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...POOR LAPSE
RATES AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD...
INCLUDING 45-50 KT AT/BELOW 1 KM...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS.  SEVERE
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN AT 5% DUE TO THE FORECAST OF LIMITED
INSTABILITY...AND SINCE ANY THREAT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FARTHER S ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT DUE TO VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS...AND WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER JET WILL COMBINE TO
MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION/ANY SEVERE THREAT.

...SRN OH SWD TO NRN AL/GA...
COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-24 TO -28C AT 500 MB/ WILL SPREAD
ESEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO NRN GULF COAST STATES DURING DAY 2
ATOP AN AIRMASS WHERE POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE 40S IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...LIMITING OVERALL
INSTABILITY...BUT COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED HAIL THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN WEAKEN/DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

..PETERS.. 12/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.