[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 090625
SWODY2
SPC AC 090623

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 15 SW ABY 30 ENE
CSG 20 SW RMG 50 N HSV 15 SSW CKV 25 W OWB 10 ESE HUF 40 ENE LAF 35
NNE FWA 20 S DTW ...CONT... 30 NNW SYR 25 SSE UCA 20 NW POU 10 E
JFK.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER ERN THIRD OF THE NATION
INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG UPSTREAM IMPULSE DROPS INTO ITS BASE WHILE
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND OCCLUDES OVER THE OH VALLEY.
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MIGRATES TOWARD THE NERN STATES...A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE SERN
U.S. AND OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY EVENING WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.



...GA...FL AND THE ERN CAROLINAS...

PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD STILL BE IN PROGRESS FROM SERN
GA/NRN FL NEWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. ACTIVITY WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR.
THREAT FOR PRIMARILY AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO MAY EXIST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION DUE TO MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION SUGGEST SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW.


...PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY...

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY OVER THE
OH VALLEY WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER
JET WHERE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR -22C AT 5 KM
WILL SUPPORT STEEP LAPSE RATES. WHERE POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING CAN
OCCUR...SUFFICIENT CAPE MAY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR HAIL
ON ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WHERE VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP SUGGESTS THREAT IS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT
MORE THAN A LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY.

..DIAL.. 12/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.