[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 020528
SWODY2
SPC AC 020527

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CST WED DEC 01 2004

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THOUGH UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH REGARD TO RATE OF PROGRESSION/
AMPLITUDE OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES...MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR IN
DEPICTION OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW EVOLUTION THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  MODELS ALL INDICATE AMPLIFICATION OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. 
PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...EASTWARD ACCELERATION  AND
PHASING OF DOWNSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW AND IMPULSE IN
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES IS PROGGED NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INTENSIFYING HIGH-LEVEL JET
STREAK FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC THROUGH THE NORTHERN MEXICAN
PLATEAU.

WHILE LATEST ETA/GFS APPEAR A BIT SLOWER THAN PRIOR RUNS WITH
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SOUTHWEST...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL STILL FAVOR
INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MEXICAN PLATEAU/RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
INFLUX OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. 

HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING OF SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IN WAKE OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC
COAST STATES.  THIS WILL PRECLUDE RISK OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO
BECOME RATHER POOR ACROSS THIS REGION...MINIMIZING RISK FOR STORMS
BASED ABOVE SURFACE RIDGING.

..KERR.. 12/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.