[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 280045
SWODY1
SPC AC 280042

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 PM CST SAT JAN 27 2007

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST...INCLUDING FL...

EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MIGRATORY SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ARKLATEX WITH AN ASSOCIATED BELT OF 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW
PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NRN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TO NEAR
THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 28/12Z.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SERN LA COAST IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP GENERALLY
EWD TOWARD THE FL BIG BEND...PRIOR TO REDEVELOPING E/NE OF JAX BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.  ATTENDANT WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING
FROM THIS LOW EWD ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NRN FL
PENINSULA MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY NWD.

LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ONGOING ACROSS ERN MS/AL/GA/FL PNHDL INTO
THE N-CNTRL/NERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...DRIVEN LARGELY BY WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION.  WHILE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR
SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO MOVE ONTO THE FL PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT
NEAR OR TO THE S OF SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT.  HERE...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN QUITE WEAK /SBCAPES AOB 300-400 J PER KG/...HOWEVER BOTH LOW
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY.

AS SUCH...SOME THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADO OR WIND GUST
WILL EXIST WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED STORMS MOVING ONSHORE.  THIS
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND TENDENCY FOR
STORMS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED.  THEREFORE...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES
WILL BE MAINTAINED.

..MEAD.. 01/28/2007