[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 280530
SWODY1
SPC AC 280528

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 PM CST SAT JAN 27 2007

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

ERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH /ANCHORED BY VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY/ WILL
BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS/VORTICITY MAXIMA TRANSLATE THROUGH MEAN PATTERN.  THE LEAD
IMPULSE /CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION/ WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE DAY ONE PERIOD.  AS THIS
OCCURS...INTENSE...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE
MIDWEST THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS...EVENTUALLY INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC BY MONDAY MORNING.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
WILL DEVELOP NNEWD ALONG/JUST E OF THE GULF STREAM WITH
SECONDARY...WEAKER CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING LATER IN THE PERIOD OFF
THE NC/VA COASTS WITH APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM.  COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA SUNDAY MORNING.

...FL...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT PUSHING SEWD THROUGH THE
PENINSULA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION
WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED/SCATTED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE
ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN RELATIVELY MOIST/WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT.  DESPITE RATHER STRONG TROPOSPHERIC WIND
FIELDS...VEERED...PRE-FRONTAL FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS COUPLED WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO
PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
CNTRL CA COAST EWD TOWARD THE SIERRAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL
LOW ENTRENCHED IN REX BLOCK OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC.  TSTM
POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL THUNDER AREA.

..MEAD.. 01/28/2007