[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 211952
SWODY1
SPC AC 211949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CST SUN JAN 21 2007

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST...

A BAND OF RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION IS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON
FROM SERN MS INTO FAR SERN LA...FOCUSED AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE LOW
NOW OVER S-CNTRL MS AND ATTENDANT FRONT/CONFLUENCE LINE STRETCHING
SWD THROUGH SERN LA.  MORE RECENT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE
COAST OF THE FL PNHDL...NEAR AND TO THE S OF WARM FRONT SLOWLY
LIFTING NWD.

12Z OBSERVED AND CURRENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MID-TROPOSPHERE IS RATHER WARM RELATIVE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE PROFILES WITH RESULTING POOR LAPSE RATES AND
QUITE WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.  AS SUCH...EXPECT THAT MAJORITY
OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT CHARGE
SEPARATION/LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THAT
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY OCCUR
OVERNIGHT TO SUPPORT AN INCREASING THREAT OF ISOLATED TSTMS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE FL PNHDL.  THEREFORE...GENERAL THUNDER LINE HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED.

..MEAD.. 01/21/2007