[SWODY1] SWODY1
Severe Weather Outlook Day 1
swody1 at goshenarc.org
Sat Jan 20 19:37:41 UTC 2007
ACUS01 KWNS 201942
SWODY1
SPC AC 201940
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CST SAT JAN 20 2007
VALID 202000Z - 211200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM EJECTING NEWD ACROSS ERN NM/WRN TX IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER WRN/CNTRL NM. REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS
AND 18Z SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE EXISTENCE OF POOR LAPSE
RATES EXCEPT INVOF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /REF. 12Z TUS SOUNDING/ OVER
ERN AZ. WHILE NO ORGANIZED THUNDER THREAT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
21/12Z...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN
ZONE OF STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM AS
WELL AS WITH MAIN LOW CENTER WHERE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH MOIST ASCENT.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURE AND RESULTANT LAPSE RATE PROFILES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM/WEAK WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR PRECIPITATION BAND
WHICH WILL BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE OVER THE SABINE INTO LOWER MS
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. NO THUNDER IS FORECAST.
..MEAD.. 01/20/2007
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