[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 201942
SWODY1
SPC AC 201940

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CST SAT JAN 20 2007

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM EJECTING NEWD ACROSS ERN NM/WRN TX IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER WRN/CNTRL NM.  REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS
AND 18Z SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE EXISTENCE OF POOR LAPSE
RATES EXCEPT INVOF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /REF. 12Z TUS SOUNDING/ OVER
ERN AZ.  WHILE NO ORGANIZED THUNDER THREAT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
21/12Z...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN
ZONE OF STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM AS
WELL AS WITH MAIN LOW CENTER WHERE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH MOIST ASCENT.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURE AND RESULTANT LAPSE RATE PROFILES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM/WEAK WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR PRECIPITATION BAND
WHICH WILL BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE OVER THE SABINE INTO LOWER MS
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.  NO THUNDER IS FORECAST.

..MEAD.. 01/20/2007