[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 061246
SWODY1
SPC AC 061244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 AM CST SAT JAN 06 2007

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

STRONG WESTERLIES ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS CURRENTLY WILL GAIN AMPLITUDE
AS STRONG PAC NW S/WV DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

ALL CONVECTION NOW OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS WEAKENING SYSTEM
CONTINUES EWD INTO WRN ATLANTIC. AN UNSEASONABLY WARM...MOIST AIR
MASS CURRENTLY OVER NERN STATES AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM/UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES. SOME WEAK
CONVECTION/ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE AS 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM
BUF TO CHH INDICATE SOME MEAGER CAPE. HOWEVER ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E THIS AFTERNOON. 

PRIMARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS WWD ACROSS NRN FL AND NRN GULF
OF MEXICO. WITH TROUGH DEEPENING INTO PLAINS TONIGHT PRESSURE WILL
FALL OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY LEADING TO GRADUAL NWD MOVEMENT OF
FRONTAL ZONE ONSHORE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

LOW LEVEL JET WILL BACK AND INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING ZONE
OF THETA-E ADVECTION...ALONG AND N OF RETURNING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK...GENERALLY LESS THAN 6C/KM 
VICINITY AND N OF GULF FRONT WHICH WILL PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY.  OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGEST ASCENT N OF WARM
FRONT...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NON-EXISTENT THRU 12Z SUNDAY.

..HALES.. 01/06/2007