[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 061622
SWODY1
SPC AC 061620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST SAT JAN 06 2007

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LONGWAVE TROUGH...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
...WILL AMPLIFY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 90-100 KT MID LEVEL JET DIVES SEWD FROM THE
PACIFIC NW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN
TX EWD ACROSS THE FAR NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS FAR SRN
TX. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT NEWD
ACROSS THE WRN GULF AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.

...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SHALLOW CONVECTION WAS LOCATED NORTH OF THE
FRONT NEAR THE GULF COAST IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... INCREASING
THETA-E ADVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AS THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM
FRONT MOVE INLAND...UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TO SHIFT NWD INTO
SRN LA. WIND PROFILES WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG AND RESULT IN 40-50
KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE RETURN OF A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES
ALOFT. ALSO...RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 450 AND 500 MB
ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

...ERN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...
LIGHTNING HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING...DESPITE WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS. CONVECTION WAS
LOCATED ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NY...AND THIS SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 60S AND HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE
REGION...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH
ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

..IMY.. 01/06/2007