[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 060102
SWODY1
SPC AC 060100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST FRI JAN 05 2007

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN FL THROUGH THE ERN
CAROLINAS AND SERN VA...

...NRN FL THROUGH SERN GA...THE ERN CAROLINAS AND SERN VA...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER GA WILL CONTINUE NE THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY...DEAMPLIFYING IN THE
PROCESS. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN TO 50+ KT ACROSS THE ERN
CAROLINAS INTO ERN VA WITHIN REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW MLCAPE FROM 500
TO 1000 J/KG OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL STORMS FROM
S CNTRL NC SWD THROUGH SERN GA AND NRN FL WILL PERSIST NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND WITHIN ZONE OF DPVA/ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT ENEWD
OVERNIGHT. STORMS OVER NRN FL MAY GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT LIFT
AWAY FROM THIS REGION. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA SHOULD ENHANCE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW
AND MAINTAIN FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES.
THEREFORE...THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
IN THIS REGION MAY PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING. PRIMARY LIMING FACTORS WILL BE TENDENCY

..DIAL.. 01/06/2007