[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 060543
SWODY1
SPC AC 060540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST FRI JAN 05 2007

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF COASTAL STATES...

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE SRN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH SWRN TX WILL MOVE EAST
AND EXTEND FROM THE NERN STATES SWWD THROUGH THE NWRN GULF BY EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
FRONT OVER THE NWRN GULF BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITHIN UPPER JET ENTRANCE
REGION AND ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS
THIS OCCURS THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF AND INTO
THE SERN STATES. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF
INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN VICINITY OF
AND N OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF COASTAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK INSTABILITY AND POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL. 

OTHER ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ON COOL SIDE OF SURFACE FRONT FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDING WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOW VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IN LAYERS ABOVE -5C...SUGGESTING ANY
LIGHTING ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND...

ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKES MAY ACCOMPANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 01/06/2007