[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 041232
SWODY1
SPC AC 041230

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 AM CST THU JAN 04 2007

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM SRN LA
INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...

...NRN GULF COAST TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW NEAR DEL RIO TX THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
GENERALLY EWD OVER CENTRAL/SE TX TODAY...REACHING THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TONIGHT...AS AN UPSTREAM WAVE DIGS ESEWD FROM THE PAC COAST
TO THE SRN GREAT BASIN.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK WAVE NEAR THE UPPER
TX COAST WILL DEVELOP NEWD/INLAND ACROSS SW/CENTRAL LA IN ADVANCE OF
THE TX MID LEVEL TROUGH.  A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT NWD ACROSS THE
N CENTRAL/NE GULF STATES ALLOWING A MOIST MARITIME AIR MASS
/BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/ TO SPREAD INLAND. 
THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY TODAY
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM LA TO THE FL PANHANDLE.  THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...WILL BE LIMITED BY RATHER POOR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING EWD/NEWD
ACROSS THE NW GULF AND E TX IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.  THE
CONVECTION INLAND IS ELEVATED THIS MORNING...AND WILL NOT LIKELY
BECOME SURFACE-BASED OVER LAND UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
INCREASE TO THE MID-UPPER 60S.  ONCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING BECOMES
SUFFICIENT BY ABOUT 18Z...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT.  THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK INSTABILITY/MOIST PROFILES AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH BOW
ECHO STRUCTURES EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE BAND.

..THOMPSON.. 01/04/2007