[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 041621
SWODY1
SPC AC 041618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CST THU JAN 04 2007

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER TX IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 05/12Z.  THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW...NOW NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE RIVER...WILL DEVELOP
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LA AND INTO NORTHERN MS.  STRONG LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...COUPLED WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WILL AID IN
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD FROM LA/AR INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OFF THE LA COAST AT THIS TIME...AND
EXTENT OF NORTHWARD PENETRATION IS UNCERTAIN.  HOWEVER...FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELL STORM
STRUCTURES IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CAN BE TRANSPORTED INLAND.  GUSTY
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.  REFER TO
MCD NUMBER 5 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.  A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL AS MAIN
UPPER TROUGH ROTATES EASTWARD.  CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...IF
SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.

..HART.. 01/04/2007