[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 202006
SWODY1
SPC AC 202005

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT WED SEP 20 2006

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN KS SWD ACROSS THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES...

...WRN KS INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...
MARGINAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN ONLY MINIMAL
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.  THOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED/SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS...MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS
WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA.  

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WOULD SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR HAIL...AND RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON
WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A BRIEF WINDOW OF POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING
WINDS. OVERNIGHT...SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE...BUT COOLING BOUNDARY
LAYER -- AND THUS ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION -- SUGGESTS THAT
MAIN OVERNIGHT THREAT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF MARGINAL HAIL.

...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF
DIGGING UPPER LOW.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- AND THUS
INSTABILITY -- REMAINS MINIMAL...STRONG FLOW ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A FEW
 ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYER MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG GUSTS WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CELLS...WHILE
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY ALSO SUPPORT MARGINAL HAIL.  THREAT
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING.

..GOSS.. 09/20/2006