[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 210054
SWODY1
SPC AC 210052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT WED SEP 20 2006

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN
KS...TX/OK PNHDL AND EXTREME NWRN OK...

...CNTRL PLAINS TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GRT BASIN
WAS BEGINNING TO MAKE A TURN TO THE EAST AND SHOULD MOVE TO SRN CO
AND NRN NM BY 12Z.  STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THIS
SYSTEM WAS SPREADING EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WILL REACH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AFTER 06-09Z.  

00Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED ON THE HIGH
PLAINS...MAINLY IN THE H85-H7 LAYER...CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST
DESTABILIZATION.  THE MORE QUALITY MOISTURE...HOWEVER...REMAINS WELL
S ACROSS DEEP S TX PER THE SATL DERIVED AND LAND BASED PWAT SENSORS.


HIGH-BASED TSTMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE TX PNHDL/W TX PLAINS
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
SUB-TROPICAL MOIST PLUME.  STORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITHIN
THIS PLUME ACROSS PARTS OF OK OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM THE TX
PNHDL NWD INTO WRN KS OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG ASCENT BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD THE INSTABILITY AXIS.  TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER
06Z AND COULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND PERHAPS ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EWD
INTO PARTS OF WRN KS AND NWRN OK BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...AS THE SLY LLJ INCREASES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
PLAINS...PROFILES WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN AND DESTABILIZE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NRN KS AND NEB.  00Z LBF SOUNDING SHOWED A 7.8 DEG C PER
KM LAPSE RATE AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS.  THUS...ISOLD STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE BANDS OF ELEVATED
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

..RACY.. 09/21/2006