[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 021711
SWODY1
SPC AC 021709

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT SAT SEP 02 2006

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED

...SRN AZ...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HURRICANE JOHN ACROSS THE SRN PART
OF BAJA CA WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD ACROSS NWRN MEXICO
INTO SE AZ. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
SCNTRL AZ AS HURRICANE JOHN CONTINUES TO MOVE NWWD TODAY. SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF AZ IN THE 55
TO 65 F RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE IN FAR SW AZ WHERE
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE SOUTH OF I-10.
DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SCNTRL AZ SHOW DEEP ELY FLOW BELOW 700 MB
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 9.0 C/KM MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

...MN/IA...
A CLOSED-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SEWD TODAY. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUPPORTING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF ASCENT. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD
ACROSS CNTRL IA INTO SRN MN WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S F. DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE MOIST AXIS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 09/02/2006