[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 021954
SWODY1
SPC AC 021952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT SAT SEP 02 2006

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN MN/IA...
CLOSED UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SD PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD NERN NEB THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 
ASCENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LARGE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDING FROM NRN MO INTO
SRN MN.  A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE EXISTS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.  MODEST SURFACE HEATING
SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE
VALUES REMAINING AOB 500 J/KG FROM CENTRAL IA INTO SRN MN.  THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING ASCENT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEPENING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD
SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS.  HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THE STRONGER CORES.  IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED
LARGE VALUES OF 0-3 KM CAPE CO-LOCATED WITH SUFFICIENT NEAR-SURFACE
VERTICAL VORTICITY ALONG THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  THIS
MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF LANDSPOUTS.

...AZ...
VISIBLE IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SWWD TO
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND INTO SERN CA WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  NWD MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE INTO
SRN AZ/SRN CA THIS FORECAST PERIOD MAINTAINING MODERATE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THIS REGION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE TO 100+ BENEATH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  WEAK NLY MID LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS AZ AFTER 00Z AND POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT MAY
ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP SSWWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS...WITH ISOLATED
THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..PETERS.. 09/02/2006