[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 020523
SWODY1
SPC AC 020521

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT SAT SEP 02 2006

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE FOR SEVERE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
ADVANCING SFC FRONT SPREADS WELL SOUTH OF ANY MEANINGFUL MID-HIGH
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS.  GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO STEEP LAPSE
RATE REGIONS OF THE SWRN U.S...AND PERHAPS WITHIN A NARROW ZONE OF
MODEST SHEAR...AHEAD OF UPPER LOW...FROM SWRN MN INTO NRN IA.

...ERN DAKOTAS/SWRN MN/NRN IA...

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY STRONGLY SUPPORTS 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN
SEWD MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS TOWARD NERN NEB. THIS
FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A ZONE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM ERN
SD INTO NRN IA AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS MAINLY SWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD HOLD IN EXCESS OF 1
INCH ALONG THIS AXIS...WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. 
MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN AIDING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
COULD OCCUR WITH STRONGER...MAINLY DIURNAL...THUNDERSTORMS.

...SWRN LOWER DESERTS OF AZ/SRN NM...

AIRMASS HAS YET TO DRY SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE U.S./MEXICAN BORDER
REGION FROM AZ INTO SRN NM...PER ANOTHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY
FRIDAY...AND ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER
OVER NRN MEXICO.  CONVECTION SHOULD READILY DEVELOP AGAIN BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH SWD PROPAGATION
EXPECTED AS UPDRAFTS MATURE.  STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST GUSTY WINDS WITH STRONGER RAIN CORES.

..DARROW/GRAMS.. 09/02/2006