[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 021236
SWODY1
SPC AC 021234

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT SAT SEP 02 2006

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK...BUT BROAD...TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS EWD
INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...A CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED
OVER SD THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SEWD INTO FAR
NERN NEB BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WAS LOCATED IN THE DELMARVA REGION. A
WEAK TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW SWD OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND THEN CROSSED THE NRN FL PENINSULA SWWD INTO THE NRN
GULF. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM WRN IA SWWD INTO THE
TX PANHANDLE/NERN NM AND IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH KS/OK AND INTO
THE MAIN BODY OF NRN TX TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT A SEVERE THREAT WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.

...SWRN MN/WRN IA...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE LIKELY TO REDUCE HEATING AND INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL
SEVERAL DEGREES AND RANGE FROM -14C TO -16C BY LATE AFTERNOON... 
RESULTING IN MUCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG. SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN THE
AREA ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND PUSH EWD AS DRY SLOT IN ERN SD
SPREADS EWD. STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AT 250-300 MB ALONG WITH
STRENGTHENING HIGH LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH 35-40 KT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WOULD AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION...WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THEREFORE...ONLY A 5%
PROBABILITY FOR HAIL/WIND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

...SRN AZ...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A HIGH LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EWD
THROUGH CENTRAL AZ WITH HIGH LEVEL DRYING BEHIND IT. THE CURRENT EWD
MOTION AT 15 KT SHOULD TAKE THIS SYSTEM EAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS HURRICANE JOHN MOVES NWWD ALONG THE SRN BAJA
PENINSULA...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NWWD FROM
MEXICO TOWARD SRN AZ. AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO AOA 100 DEGREES AND
MIX TO MOISTURE BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB...SCATTERED HIGH BASED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP. MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSES RATES IN THE LOWER 2-3 KM WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AT
LEAST GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE STRONGER CORES.

..IMY/GRAMS.. 09/02/2006