[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 271228
SWODY1
SPC AC 271226

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES INTO FL...

POWERFUL UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER OK WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN TN BY 00Z...THEN ACCELERATE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 28/12Z.  RELATIVELY DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK ALONG SIMILAR PATH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  THIS FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  

...LA/MS/AL THIS MORNING...
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST
LA/SOUTHERN MS.  THESE STORMS ARE IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND MUCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG. LOCAL VAD DATA IN THIS REGION SHOWS VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /3KM SR-HELICITY OF 300-500
M2/S2 AND 6KM SHEAR OF 50-65 KNOTS/.  STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  WEAK LAPSE RATES
AND MINIMAL CAPE WILL LESSEN THE HAIL THREAT.  HOWEVER...DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS.

...GA/FL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LINE OF STORMS PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF GA/FL.  EXTENT OF DAYTIME HEATING IS UNCERTAIN OVER THIS
REGION...LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. 
NEVERTHELESS...WITH 60-70 KNOT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND APPROACHING
SQUALL LINE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES IN STRONGEST OF CELLS.

...CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...
FINALLY...MODELS AGREE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN.  DESPITE VERY STRONG WIND
FIELDS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME
DUE TO FORECAST OF WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN RICH
ATLANTIC MOISTURE PLUME.  HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED IN
LATER UPDATES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION AND
POSSIBLE OUTLOOK UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK.

..HART/GRAMS.. 10/27/2006