[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 291554
SWODY1
SPC AC 291552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0952 AM CST SUN OCT 29 2006

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NORTHEAST...
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY MOVE NEWD TODAY. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN/NRN ME THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ABOVE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW BAND EXTENDING INTO NWRN UPSTATE NY.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY GIVEN THE WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES AND COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTMS IN THIS AREA AS WELL.


...WRN MT...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD FROM SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD ACROSS MT. MODERATE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
NRN ROCKIES FRONT RANGE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

...SRN AZ/SWRN NM...
A BROAD FETCH OF MID/HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE
SRN CA/BAJA CA COAST THIS MORNING. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AT TUCSON
AND GUAYMAS /SONORA MX/ BOTH INDICATED STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
RELATIVELY MOIST 500-400 MB LAYER. SUFFICIENT LIFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE IF MOISTENING
CAN OCCUR JUST BELOW THIS LAYER. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A CONTOURED AREA.

..CROSBIE/EVANS.. 10/29/2006