[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 221247
SWODY1
SPC AC 221245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SUN OCT 22 2006

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
BROAD...DEEP CLOSED LOW CENTERED N OF LK SUPERIOR WILL DOMINATE THE
ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION THIS PERIOD AS DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE
PROGRESSES E INTO SW CANADA AND THE INTERIOR PAC NW.  BAND OF FAST
W/WSWLY FLOW ON SRN EDGE OF LOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY FROM THE LWR
MS/TN VLY TO THE MID AND S ATLANTIC CSTS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND E ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE DAY. BY EARLY MONDAY THE FRONT SHOULD CURVE
CYCLONICALLY FROM CAPE COD TO WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND
THEN SW ACROSS CNTRL FL INTO THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO.  FARTHER S...
WEAK WARM FRONT NOW OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND NERN GULF SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NE INTO NRN FL AND S GA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST ALONG AND AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT FROM THE N CNTRL GULF E/NE INTO PARTS OF GA AND N FL. 
ELEVATED STORMS MAY ALSO LINGER FOR SOME TIME TODAY ABOVE FRONTAL
SURFACE OVER DEEP S TX.  MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP NWD
ALONG THE SC CST...AND IN DPVA/JET EXIT REGION OVER WRN NY/PA.
STORMS MAY ALSO FORM OFF THE CAROLINA CST THIS EVENING.

LIMITED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...AND WEAK CONVERGENCE/LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT...SUGGEST THAT UPDRAFTS IN MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS SHOULD EXIST OVER
SRN GA/NRN FL...AND OVER DEEP S TX....MAINLY BETWEEN NOW AND LATE
AFTERNOON.  VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH TIME SHOULD RESULT IN A
DIMINISHING THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION WITH ANY STRONGER
UPDRAFTS IN THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 10/22/2006