[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 221605
SWODY1
SPC AC 221604

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CDT SUN OCT 22 2006

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION/SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. WITH UPPER
LOW CENTER SHIFTING SWD ACROSS WRN ONTARIO INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT
LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ENHANCING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO. GIVEN MINIMAL LAKE INDUCED
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. TO THE SOUTH...A COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
STORMS FROM SRN GA/NRN FL INTO SC.

...SRN GA/NRN FL...
CONVECTION WILL FOCUS ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SWD ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL. SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO PERSIST/REDEVELOP
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. SHEAR PROFILES
SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN MODEST AT BEST WITH MAIN WIND
CORE ALOFT WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT. THUS...SEVERE UNLIKELY ALTHOUGH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..JEWELL/HALES.. 10/22/2006