[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 161631
SWODY1
SPC AC 161629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SE TX INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SE TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NM/W TX WILL EJECT ENEWD OVER
THE SRN PLAINS TO AR AND WRN TN/KY BY LATE TONIGHT AS A LARGER SCALE
TROUGH DIGS SEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A SURFACE LOW NOW IN NE TX
WILL DEVELOP NEWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVE...WHILE
THE STRONG LLJ WILL ALSO DEVELOP NEWD FROM LA TOWARD THE TN/OH
VALLEYS BY TONIGHT.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY OVER SE TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG A SURFACE WARM
FRONT WHICH IS LIFTING SLOWLY NWD.

REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...PROFILERS...AND VWP/S SHOW INTENSE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH OF 400-700 M2/S2/ WITH THE 50-70 KT
LLJ...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN/CENTRAL LA ATTM.  DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THIS AREA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 
DESPITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND POOR LAPSE RATES...BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ARE DRIVING SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY ALONG AND S OF THE MARINE FRONT.  THE MARINE FRONT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD TOWARD THE I-20 CORRIDOR ACROSS
LA/MS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE LLJ CORE DEVELOPS NEWD INTO
MS.  THUS...EXPECT THE PRIMARY SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT AREA TO
SHIFT NEWD FROM SE TX/SRN LA THIS MORNING TO CENTRAL/NE LA AND
SRN/CENTRAL MS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 10/16/2006