[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 162002
SWODY1
SPC AC 162000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SE TX TO N-CENTRAL MS AND WRN
AL...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS WRN CONUS SYNOPTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND MOVES SEWD...STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SRN PLAINS WILL EJECT NEWD...REACHING
VICINITY LOWER-MID MS VALLEY BY END OF PERIOD. ASSOCIATED ENHANCED
GRADIENTS ALOFT...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REGIME...WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS DEEP S IN SUPPORT OF SVR TSTM
POTENTIAL.  WEAK SFC LOW OVER ARKLATEX REGION SHOULD LIFT NEWD OVER
AR.  MARINE/WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG SRN RIM OF LARGE AREA OF
PRECIP...FROM SE TX EWD ACROSS CENTRAL LA TO SWRN MS...THEN SEWD TO
NEAR COASTAL MS/AL BORDER.  THIS FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD OVER CENTRAL
MS AND PORTIONS WRN/SRN AL BEFORE 17/12Z.

...SE TX TO MS/WRN AL...
OUTLOOK IS MOST STRONGLY DRIVEN BY SUPERCELLULAR TORNADO
THREAT...WITH DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM EITHER
SUPERCELLS OR SMALL BOWS.  MARINE FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS
LA/MS DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...DEMARCATING NRN PORTION OF
FAVORABLY BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT. FAVORABLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE EVIDENT BOTH ALONG MARINE FRONT
AND WELL SWD INTO WARM SECTOR...AS SAMPLED BY 18Z SIL SOUNDING.  REF
SPC WWS 830/831...AS WELL AS RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...FOR
MORE DETAILED REASONING OF NOWCAST SCENARIO.

ASSOCIATED REGIME OF ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR AND AT LEAST MRGL BUOYANCY...IS FCST TO SHIFT
ENEWD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS MORE OF MS AND SRN/WRN AL. 
THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO AREAS ALONG AND S OF MARINE FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD LIE CLOSE TO 73-74 DEG F SFC ISODROSOTHERM.  IN THIS AIR
MASS...EXPECT NOCTURNAL/DIABATIC COOLING WILL BE TOO WEAK TO CAUSE
ENOUGH STABILIZATION TO RAISE EFFECTIVE PARCELS ABOVE SFC. 
THEREFORE...GIVEN FCST FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...SUPERCELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL TORNADOES -- A FEW OF
WHICH MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG AFTER DARK AND 0-1 KM SRH
UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG.

..EDWARDS.. 10/16/2006