[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 151632
SWODY1
SPC AC 151630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NM AND W TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SE TX AND SW
LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
AZ UPR LOW APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ABOUT MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY E OR ESE INTO SW NM
LATER TODAY.  DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LOW...EXPECT MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW
TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN FROM W TO E ACROSS TX THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...DIFFUSE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT FARTHER N ACROSS SE
TX/CSTL LA TODAY/TONIGHT...WHILE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH HOLDS MORE OR
LESS STATIONARY FROM THE TX S PLNS ENE INTO N CNTRL TX.

...SRN AND ERN NM/W TX...
SCTD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY INVOF WSW/ENE ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM SRN NM INTO NW/N CNTRL TX.  MODERATE BUT VERY MOIST /850 MB
DEWPOINTS AOA 15 C/ SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE BENEATH 40-50
KT SW FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM AZ LOW.  WHILE NO DISTINGUISHABLE
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...GENERAL LARGE
SCALE ASCENT SHOULD MAINTAIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS LOW CONTINUES EWD.  ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED LATER
TODAY ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR W TX BY HEATING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. 
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD OCCUR WITH STRONGER/MORE
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.

...SE TX/SW LA...
VERY RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE /850 MB DEWPOINTS ABOVE 16 C/ WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD INTO SE TX AND EVENTUALLY SRN LA THIS PERIOD
AS MARITIME WARM FRONT LIFTS FARTHER N.  SHORTWAVE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN NEAR
MOIST ADIABATIC.  BUT GENERAL AREA OF UPR DIFFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM
DISTURBANCES OVER MEXICO AND THE WRN GULF...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION...SHOULD MAINTAIN GOOD SETUP FOR SHOWERS/STORMS NOW
OVER THE NWRN GULF TO MOVE/DEVELOP N ACROSS THE SE TX CSTL PLN. 
GIVEN RICH MOIST ENVIRONMENT...EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF LLJ
DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING AZ LOW MAY FOSTER LOW LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN
AS SURFACE HEATING ENHANCES LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION LATER
TODAY...BUT THE GREATEST THREAT MAY EVOLVE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
AS SLY LLJ INCREASES TO AOA 50 KTS.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 10/15/2006