[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 151950
SWODY1
SPC AC 151949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE NM AND WEST
TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX AND
LA...

...WEST TX/SE NM...
AN UPPER-LOW OVER AZ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF A DRY
SLOT EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR OVER SRN NM. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
ENEWD...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOWER TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS EXTENDING
NEWD FROM FAR WEST TX ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE CAPROCK INTO THE
SERN TX PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WHERE FORCING WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH IS
STRONGEST. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE TWO
FACTORS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-TROUGH AND COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS MOVE EWD INTO WEST TX LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHERE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS BEEN MINIMAL AND INSTABILITY
IS LOCALLY ENHANCED.  

...EAST TX/LA...
LATEST WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY LARGE MCS JUST OFF THE TX
COAST WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ALONG THE TX COAST FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE EXPANDING
LOW-LEVEL JET AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD MAKE MCS DEVELOPMENT MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING NWD ACROSS EAST TX INTO WRN LA DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE LATEST WSR-88D VWPS FROM THE HOUSTON AREA SHOW IMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILES WITH STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 30 KT. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS MOVING
NWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES TO 60-70 KT ACROSS EAST TX TONIGHT...THE TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD INCREASE AND GRADUALLY EXPAND NWD. ALTHOUGH TORNADOES SHOULD
BE THE MOST LIKELY TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER...THE HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS
AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL.

..BROYLES.. 10/15/2006