[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 141945
SWODY1
SPC AC 141943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AZ...NRN
AZ AND FAR SRN NV...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TX
COAST...

...CNTRL AND NRN AZ/FAR SRN NV...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LOW OVER SRN CA WILL DRIFT EWD THIS AFTERNOON
INTO AZ WITH A DUAL-CENTERED SFC LOW REMAINING PRESENT ACROSS CNTRL
AZ. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER-LOW IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE EWD WITH INDIVIDUAL
CELL ELEMENTS MOVING NWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN AZ THROUGH THIS
EVENING...REF 2111 VALID THROUGH 21Z.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STILL REMAINS WEAK THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER CNTRL AND NRN AZ AS A DRY SLOT
 EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SRN CA AND WRN AZ ADVANCES
NNEWD. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY STEEP AND CONTINUED SFC
HEATING SHOULD HELP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN FURTHER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -18 TO -20 C AND
THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET MAY
RESULT IN SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

...LOWER TX COAST...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TX AS A
WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LOW ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE SWRN STATES
TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NNEWD
ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
JET SHOULD RESULT IN MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH STORM COVERAGE
INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS SOUTH TX AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO INCREASE SHEAR PROFILES WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LATE TONIGHT SHOWING 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES REACHING ABOUT 25
KT ACROSS SOUTH TX. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S
F MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH ROTATING STORMS THAT
MOVE NWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 10/14/2006