[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 150047
SWODY1
SPC AC 150046

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...W TX...

SCATTERED STRONG STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE BROAD FETCH
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS W AND SWRN TX
INTO SERN NM DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER LOW OVER AZ. MODEST SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODERATE 40-45 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING
IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. STRONGEST STORMS
REMAIN OVER SWRN TX EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPERIENCED MORE HEATING EARLIER TODAY...RESULTING IN MLCAPE FROM
500 TO 800 J/KG. STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER N ACROSS W TX ARE
PROBABLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A BOUNDARY LAYER THAT HAS BEEN
RENDERED LESS UNSTABLE BY EXTENSIVE STRATUS. THE 00Z RAOB FROM
AMARILLO CONFIRMS THE STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE IS RATHER
SHALLOW IN THIS REGION. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER W
TX THIS EVENING WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER
LOW. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL OVER
SWRN TX AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ROTATING
STORMS. OVERALL THREAT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY.


...SRN TX...

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING PRIMARILY WITHIN ZONE
OF LIFT ACCOMPANYING A NEWD EJECTING IMPULSE AND IN VICINITY OF WARM
FRONT AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NWD THROUGH SRN TX AND THE WRN GULF. AN ELY
LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN THIS REGION LATER TONIGHT
AND SHOULD AUGMENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. HOWEVER...FLOW IN THE
3-6 KM LAYER WILL REMAIN WEAK DUE TO PROXIMITY OF A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE. THOUGH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES. AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY EXIST LATER TONIGHT AS
THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES INCREASE. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT
APPEARS LIMITED.

..DIAL.. 10/15/2006