[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 020035
SWODY1
SPC AC 020034

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT SUN OCT 01 2006

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE FLATTER/LESS-AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM FLOW
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION EXISTS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS
ATTM...WITH 35-40 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET INDICATED FROM N CENTRAL OK
NEWD INTO WI.  ISOLATED/ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN
WI/NRN IL IN RESPONSE...AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION AND SEWD
INTO LOWER MI/INDIANA. EVENING RAOBS ACROSS THIS REGION CONFIRM
ONLY MODEST ELEVATED CAPE...AND MARGINAL CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR. 
THEREFORE...THOUGH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...MOST IF NOT ALL HAIL SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.

ELSEWHERE...A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY LINGER BEYOND 02/01Z
OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...CENTRAL AND NRN MS...AND THE TX BIG BEND
AREA...BUT EXPECT CONVECTION/LIGHTNING THREAT TO TAPER OFF THROUGH
MID-EVENING IN THESE AREAS.

..GOSS.. 10/02/2006