[SWODY1] SWODY1
Severe Weather Outlook Day 1
swody1 at goshenarc.org
Mon Oct 2 00:36:05 UTC 2006
ACUS01 KWNS 020035
SWODY1
SPC AC 020034
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT SUN OCT 01 2006
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE FLATTER/LESS-AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM FLOW
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION EXISTS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS
ATTM...WITH 35-40 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET INDICATED FROM N CENTRAL OK
NEWD INTO WI. ISOLATED/ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN
WI/NRN IL IN RESPONSE...AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION AND SEWD
INTO LOWER MI/INDIANA. EVENING RAOBS ACROSS THIS REGION CONFIRM
ONLY MODEST ELEVATED CAPE...AND MARGINAL CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR.
THEREFORE...THOUGH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...MOST IF NOT ALL HAIL SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
ELSEWHERE...A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY LINGER BEYOND 02/01Z
OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...CENTRAL AND NRN MS...AND THE TX BIG BEND
AREA...BUT EXPECT CONVECTION/LIGHTNING THREAT TO TAPER OFF THROUGH
MID-EVENING IN THESE AREAS.
..GOSS.. 10/02/2006
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