[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 010558
SWODY1
SPC AC 010556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT SUN OCT 01 2006

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS...WHILE FLATTER/LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.  

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS FORECAST OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. 
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT -- EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER
MANITOBA -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
MODELS HINT THAT WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY MAY BRUSH THE SRN
NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AS TRIPLE POINT SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THIS REGION AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THOUGH THIS SCENARIO
REMAINS UNCERTAIN...FAVORABLY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT COULD
SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO -- PRESUMING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
EXTENDS INLAND.  

MORE LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HOWEVER MAY OCCUR LATER...AS
DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH
YIELDS WEAK DESTABILIZATION.  THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG...POCKETS OF INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW
STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD EVOLVE FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY/ERN PA/SERN
NY EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.  A
LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS...BUT ANY THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THROUGH THE
EVENING...AS AIRMASS STABILIZES AND THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

...NRN IL/SRN WI AND VICINITY...
NOCTURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY AS SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET --
AHEAD OF SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT -- SHIFTS EWD INTO THIS REGION AND
INTENSIFIES.  ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS...AIDED BY 30 KT WLY FLOW FORECAST AT MID-LEVELS. 
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS...WILL MAINTAIN A
LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR HAIL.

..GOSS.. 10/01/2006